Breaking Down: The Syracuse Orangemen

In week three of the 2008 season the mighty Lions face a long time nemesis in the Orangemen of Syracuse. The Orangemen have fallen on hard times as they have only won seven games since 2005. However, if one thinks back to the 60s, one will remember a heated rivalry where the Lion shrine is ritualistically painted orange (and has been attempted since 1966) and Otto the Orange is pulled into the student section and given a ritualistic beating. This is a rivalry of my past. It is back and I love it. Bring it, Orangemen!

If you are looking for a Syracuse blog to frequent allow me to suggest Orange 44.

The Orangemen will have to improve greatly this off-season if they hope to hang with PSU. This is despite hosting the Lions for their first road game of the year. Why will the Orange-hordes have to screw their courage to the sticking post? Well, the Orangmen were ranked 111th in team defense and 114th in offense. It might not be Notre Dame bad, but it is bad. Given this lowly state of affairs, lets take a look at the 2008 Orangemen.

Passing:
If Syracuse wants to be a player in the 2008 season it will have to be through the air. Syracuse finished with the 55th ranked pass offense in the country, not terrible and better than PSU's ranking of 75th. Andrew Robinson will be under center for Syracuse and will bring much needed experience to a shakey offense. If Robinson can improve off of his 2000+ yd 2007 season the Orange could be dangerous. However, Robinson will have to improve his consistency if he is to lead the Orangemen to the promised land. In 2007 Robinson threw 13 TDs, however, seven of these came in only two games. Andrew will have to step up and score points to be successful.

Helping out on the receiving end is Mike Williams. Williams caught 60 balls for over 800 yards and 10 TDs. At 6'2" and over 200 pounds Williams is a big tough target and could prove to be a difficult match-up for the Lions.

Realistically, if the young Syracuse Offensive line can protect the QB they have a good chance to be succesful. However, the Orange have a long way to go as they gave up 54 sacks in 2007. If you were wondering, that makes them better than only ASU and ND at protecting the QB. Not so good. Does it make it hurt less that they will be fielding a very young offensive line?

Rushing:
Syracuse is not good at running the football. The Orange only ran for 753 yards in 2007. Yes, the entire team. No. I'm not joking. Doug Hogue is projected to start in 2008, however, with the combination of a young offensive line and a young running back could spell disaster for Syracuse.

Defense:
As was mentioned above, the Orange were hard pressed to keep teams out of the end zone last year. The Orange gave up nearly 35 points per game. That is not a way to win football games. Again, Syracuse looks to field a very young defensive team this year. Could the young'uns be great? Sure. However, it seems more likely that the Orange defense be despicably poor. However, if the young guys step up and play beyond their years they could be not terrible.



Match-up:
Despite the trouncing I just gave Syracuse they have a punchers chance against the Lions. Why, JB? You might find yourself asking. Well, this is because you have to think about how much trouble a good, big, physical wide receiver can give the Penn State Defense. If AJ Wallace has trouble containing Mr. Williams Syracuse might just stand a chance. Did I mention Williams has one inch and 20 lbs on AJ? That being said, PSU will be too much for Syracuse to handle. PSU's running game will truly shine in this game and the Lions will methodically grind Syracuse into dust. I predict 250+ rushing yards for PSU and a Penn State victory. Though some big plays keep it closer than a lot of people may think.

Prediction:
PSU: 35
SYR: 17


GO STATE!

Breaking Down: Oregon State

The Oregon St. Beavers will roll into Beaver stadium on September 6th (keep it classy, PSU! I am just going to leave the whole beaver-on-the-beaver thing alone). Oregon St. looks to build off of their 9-4 season in 2007 (sound familiar?). Similarly, PSU is tied with OSU in The Fulmer Cup!

One cannot sleep on the buck-toothed-mammals as they finished 3rd in the Pac-10 last year, which was one of the toughest conferences in the country. The Beavers will have to contend with not only a mercilessly long cross-country trip to face the lions but also face a rabid home crowd which will be over twice as large as the crowd the Beavers play to in Reser Stadium (Capacity 46,200). This is not to say that Oregon State will not be a challenge for the Lions, the Beavers return starters at key positions and know what it means to compete at the highest level of college football.

To get a Beaver's perspective on the Lions head on over to Building the Dam, a wonderful OSU blog. He is breaking down the match-up just like I am. Go and make friends with those crazy, dam building, buck-toothed, bastards!

PASSING:
The Beavers return Sean Canfield at QB who saw significant playing time in 2007 and could be ready for a big year in 2008. He accumulated over 1600 yards passing and completed over 57% of his passes in 2007. One also must consider that he only played in 10 games last year. The Beavers had a tough time protecting their QBs in 2007. 36 sacks is a lot of sacks, it isn't Notre Dame, but it isn't good! No wonder he missed a little time. Canfield's injury gave back-up QBLyle Moevao a chance to play and he made the most of it passing for over 800 yds. OSU fans can at least breathe a little easier knowing that if Canfield goes down they are deep at the QB position.

The Beavers could struggle in the passing game in early 2008 as they lose three of their top four WRs to graduation. The young guys will have to step up and play well right away for the Beavers to succeed. The bottom line is that the combination of a potentially shaky offensive line, a QB who can be knocked out of games, and inexperienced WR corps could spell trouble for Oregon State.

Rushing:
Oregon State loses their top back from 2007 (Yvenson Berndard) which leaves the Beavers in a bit of a pickle as their second leading rusher plays Wide Receiver (James Rodgers). However, Oregon St.'s offensive line, as we said is loaded with senior leadership but will need to improve to give presumptive starter, Ryan McCants, a chance to do some damage. Returning Starters are great as long as they are good players. It doesn't do a bit of good to return a four year starter who has been terrible every time. If the Line is going to pull it together '08 is the time.

Similarly, the rushing game will absolutely have to improve to keep defenses honest. If teams are able to rush the passer on every single down there is a good possibility that Canfield won't survive the season.

Defense:
Don't fool yourself, the Beavers play some defense! They were a better defensive team than PSU last year. OSU was #8 and PSU was #11. That is some big time defense. OSU was extremely stingy on the ground giving up less than 1,000 yards but was a little looser through the air giving up over 3,000 yds. However, they have a great opportunity to improve on defense in 2008 as they return 8 upperclassmen. That is some senior leadership baby! Oh, and did I mention that they have three senior defensive lineman. Yeah. It could be tough to put up points on these stingy beavers!

HOW PSU AND OSU MATCHUP:
This is going to be a great early season match up. I expect PSU to win the battle for the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the ball. PSU is deep and talented on the defensive line and while they will line up against a senior o-line with something to prove. This is really all I have to support that claim.

However, PSU is really inexperienced at QB and RB and will struggle to move the ball consistently against the Beavers.

In the end, this game will be decided by one or two big plays and neither team will crack 20 points. Turnovers, as always, will be huge.

PREDICTION:
At the end of the day, home-field advantage will be the difference in this game as PSU takes a very tough early game at home.
PSU: 17
OSU: 14

GO STATE!

Breaking Down: Coastal Carolina

We are back to the endless stretch of road between spring practice and the start of the College Football season. In order to pass the time and to brush up on who PSU will be facing in 2008. I will be breaking down each of Penn State's opponents (poorly). These Break Downs will go in order of the schedule and, just like PSU's schedule, there will be one up every week.

First, PSU takes on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in Happy Valley on 8/30/08. Coastal Carolina is a Div II school who plays in the Big South Conference. If you are terrified of PSU opening its season against a Div II school....I wouldn't be. That isn't to say that Coastal Carolina should be overlooked, however, they are not Appy. St.

I will attempt to give you a reasonable look at the Passing Game, Running Game, and Defense for your 2008 Chanticleers.

PASSING:
Coastal Carolina returns Sr. starting QB William Richardson who comes off a fairly productive Jr. Season where he completed over 57% of his passes, threw for nearly 1600 yds, 13 TDs, and 7 Ints. However, if you are fearing some sort of dual threat menace you can stop that right now. Richardson is a pocket QB with good size (6'5" 230) but he lacks the mobility to be a dual threat. Richardson carried the ball 67 times in 2007 for only 80 yards. While this may be significantly better than AMMO's 48 rushes for -13 yds it does not make Richardson a legitimate running threat.

Graduation has taken its toll on the Chanticleer's wide receiving corps. The two best receivers in 2007 have graduated. And by best I mean most yards, receptions, and touchdowns. Of those two, clearly the loss of Jerome Simpson hurts the most as he led the team in receptions, yards, yds/reception, and TDs (11). In fact, Simpson caught 11 of the team's 14 passing TDs (that's 78%, homes!).

Coastal Carolina desperately needs at least two WRs to step up to replace the yawning chasm of talent left because of graduation. Look for the Chanticleer's to go to WR Jamar Anderson who has shown hints of big play potential but seems unreliable.

RUSHING:
CC lost their leading rusher from '07, Mike Tolbert, who racked up 748 yds, averaging 6.7/touch, and scoring 9 TDs. CC will probably look to two players SR RB Jaime Fordham and So RB Eric Oneal. Both should have solid seasons as, from what I can tell, every single offensive linemen returns for the '08 campaign. This should mean good holes for these two players to exploit.

DEFENSE:
The Chanticleer's gave up 25.9 pts/game in the Big South in 2007. They did not play a Bowl Championship Division Team. However, CC seems very young on the Defensive side of the ball so, if anything, I would expect and improved Chanticleer defense for the '08 Season.

How PSU and CCU Matchup:
PSU will be CCU's biggest game of the year. They will be playing in front of 100,000 fans and countless more on the BTN. These kids are going to be fired up. However, CCU does not run any sort of spread offense and will be undersized and out-gunned at virtually every position on the field. The PSU starters will not play past the first half giving some younger players some game experience. PSU will win and win big.

PREDICTION:
PSU: 52
CCU: 13

GO STATE!

Butler TD Breakdown

Fight On State has a great breakdown of the long TD strike from Morelli to Butler. Find it here. It really is great.

The Play.


The FormationThis is the kind of break down that I wish i was smart enough to do! Great work FOS!

GO STATE! BEAT INDIANA!

Breaking Down: The Temple Owls

We are getting towards the end of our breakdown of PSU's 2007 campaign. We stagger into week eleven to break down Temple. Well, i guess one can't break Temple down more than they already are. There is only really one question about Temple's team; how terrible will they be? The answer, of course, is quite terrible. If you want to check out a Temple blog, which is actually quite good, go to Temple Football Forever.

The Owls' Passing Attack:
Temple only threw for 1944 yards in 2006 with frosh QB Adam Dimichele under center. That is only 162 yds/game. On the bright side, Dimichele will return to start and did throw an accurate ball as he completed over 61% of his passes. Dimichele has also lost two of his four favorite targets due to graduation but does return Francis and Shelton who combined for 828 yds receiving and 7 TDs. Essentially, these two players accounted for 43% of the Temple passing attack. The Owls are ironically pitiful through the air. Even Northwestern passed for more yards and TDs than the lowly Owls. However, if a young but large o-line (4 starters are 30+ Lbs) can keep Dimichele's uniform clean they should have a chance to improve in 2007.

The Owls' Rushing Attack:
Gone is Tim Brown who, for all intents and purposes, was the Owl's offense in 2006. Brown rushed for 731 yds averaging 4 yds/carry in 2006 and he caught 33 passes for 218 yards. The man accounted for over 1/3 of every yard Temple gained in 2006. Marcellous Grigsby, a red-shirt Junior) replaces the talented Mr. Brown in the backfield. Grigsby must be doing something right as he beat-out Jason Harper who backed up Brown last fall. As Grigsby goes so will the Owls' 2007 campaign.


Via the Philly Inquirer

The Owls' Defense:
The Owls gave up 41 pts/game in 2006. In the MAC. That is not good, in fact, it is terrible. The Owls have to get that number down into the 20s before they can be taken seriously.

Predictions:
The Owls went 1-11 in 2006 but they return an incredible number of young players with experience after getting through a trying season. This years Temple team will undoubtedly be better than last years but a few key losses could retard any progression the Owls seem poised to make. I think Temple will get 2 wins this season.

PSU: 55
Owls: 0

GO STATE! ONLY 8 DAYS LEFT!

SI Breaks Down The Big Ten

SI.com has their Big Ten breakdown posted here, while it is unremarkable for it's lock-step predictability it also seems to make little sense. They predict PSU will go 5-3 in conference and 9-3 overall. One can only assume the losses would be to Tosu, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which I can accept. It is certainly a possible outcome.

They have Iowa sharing 4th place with the Nittany Lions, but this is where it gets weird. SI calls Iowa a "Sleeper" but still predicts them to go 5-3 in conference while missing Tosu and Michigan! OOOH! Their so talented they'll go 9-3 while only playing 2 of the four top rated teams in the conference! Their is also mad talk of felony charges on Hawkeye Pages!

Read it and be frustrated!

GO STATE! GET FIRED UP!

Breaking Down: The Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue is coming off an 8-6 year in 2006 but they bring back a bevy of offensive talent and if you think that Joe Tiller isn't soiling himself with delight over the thought of throwing the ball of 10,000 times in 2007 than you are dreaming. The Boilermakers roll into Happy Valley on November 11th (the preceeding week the Lions will have faced Tosu on the field and then spent Sunday cleaning up the stadium) which sets up the team for a possible big-time-let-down against the Boilermakers. The Lions will have just finished the "toughest" part of their schedule having faced three top ten teams in the last six weeks. Below, I will try to show you what PSU fans can expect from Purdue.

I pooped!

Boilermaker Passing:
Purdue put the ball in the air 541 times in 2006 and 322 of those times a Purdue player caught the ball. Of the times a ball was caught by a boilermaker 24 of those times ended with a Boilermaker in the endzone (TDs). Unfortunately, 20 of those passes ended up with an opposing player having caught the ball (Ints). Curtis Painter (QB) will return with much more experience to lead the Boilermakers in 2007. He certainly is skilled as he passed for nearly 4,000 yds and 22 TDs in 2006. However, his decision making was terrible as he threw 19 Ints. Painter will also benefit from the return of his three favorite receivers (Dorien Bryant, Greg Orton, and Dustin Keller). Bryant is an absolute beast snagging 87 balls for over 1000 yards. The matchup of King and Bryant will be the match-up to watch. In sum, if Painter improves his decision making and their inexperienced offensive line comes together Purdue could be deadly through the air.

Boilermaker Rushing:
While Purdue loves to pass they actually do rush the ball nearly 42% of the time! Balanced it is not, but there is some talent in the backfield. Kory Sheets and Jaycen Taylor both will see some serious playing time. Last year the duo combined for 1457 yds rushing and 15 Tds. Purdue also likes to work their RBs into the passing game as the two also combined for 417 yds receiving and three TDs. Purdue's offensive line is extremely inexperienced as they replace every starter from last year. If they remain healthy and work as a team the running game could take a big step forward in 2007.

Boilermaker Defense:
The Boilermakers return no starters from last year on Defense. That might be a good thing as Purdue gave up 26.7 pts/game last year (note: PSU only managed to put up 12 against Purdue). They weren't good against the run and they weren't good against the pass. It is a smörgåsbord of defensive mediocrity.

Prediction:
Purdue's pass-heavy offense plays into Penn State's strengths as the line and linebackers can put their ears back and rush the passer. Penn State's Offense should, hopefully, be able to put up more than 12 pts against an inexperienced defense. If Penn State gets on top early they will win. However, if Purdue's passing game is clicking it could be a very close game. In the end, PSU won't be looking past Purdue, Justin King and A.J. Wallace are athletic enough to handle the recievers, and the Lions will win comfortably.

PSU: 31
Purdue: 17

To learn a little more about Purdue you can see them in their natural environment over at Boiled Sports.

GO STATE! GET FIRED UP!

Breaking Down: The Ohio State Buckeyes

I apologize for failing to do much of anything in regards to breaking down PSU's opponnents over the last few weeks. I will now attempt to return with a vengeance to break down the Buckeyes, another team PSU loves to hate and yet they refuse to accept PSU as a rival. The Buckeyes enter 2007 with the dubious distinction of making it to the Championship game only to walk into the (Buck)Nut-Cracker that was the 2006 Gators. Gone are Ginn, Gonzales, and old Mr. Heisman, Troy Smith. I was quick to dismiss Tosu last year and they proved me to be a gigantic fool. If you are still reading, Ohio State graduated a great deal of talent on the offensive side of the ball this year, losing the above-mentioned WRs and Heisman winner. However, that does not mean Tosu will be terrible as they have certainly proven in the pass that they can win with a care-taker of a QB and a stingy defense. Now, on to the breakdown!


Buckeye Passing:
Ok, gone is Troy Smith and his 2500+ yds passing, 30 tds, and only 6 picks. Also gone are Ginn and Gonzales who combined for 17 TDs and over 1500 yds receiving. Exactly who will fill these atlas-sized-nikes? Nobody knows for sure, will it be Boeckman? Henton? You get the idea about how this is going by the number of question marks in this paragraph. However, the Buckeyes do return their third leading receiver from 2006, Brian Robiskie. Robiskie wracked up only half as many yards as either Ginn or Gonzales but should see those numbers increase as he will certainly play a larger role in the offense. The Passing game will also be limited as, unless true frosh Henton starts, the Buckeyes will have a Morelli-esque statue planted in the backfield. Losing an elusive QB not only hurts the rushing numbers but will also impact the passing numbers as the line will have to buy this year's QB much more time in the pocket.

Buckeye Rushing:
Antonio Pittman was a key piece of the Buckeye's run last year as he rushed for 1233 yds, averaged 5.1 yds/carry, and scored 14 TDs. He was a beast. His most likely replacement is Chris Wells who racked up over 500 yds last year spelling Pittman. Wells's average is 5.6 yds/carry which bests Pittman's average. The offensive line seems to be in relatively good shape returning 3 starters. Odds are by the time PSU and Tosu square off the two "new guys" (Cordle and Person) will be up to speed and playing well. In short, Ohio State will be a rushed based offense this year as they try not to put to much pressure on an inexperienced QB and WRs.

Buckeye Defense:
Ohio State's defense was fantastic last year. I didn't believe in them before the season started and they made me look like a fool as they only averaged 12.8 pts/game (including holding PSU to 6). At the end of the year, Ohio State's defense was exposed a little when Michigan hoisted 39 pts. up against them and FL amassed 41 pts. This year's defense looks to have a chance to duplicate this prior success but it will require young, inexperience lineman to play as well as last year's young, inexperienced defensive backfield did last year. Tosu only returns one starter on the defensive line and only five starters on the whole unit. It seems as though Tosu would be vulnerable to the run, if so, this could be a very long year for this defense.

Predictions:
Tosu rumbles into Happy Valley on October 27th and have a shot at being 8-0 when they arrive. This sets up a possible repeat of the 2005 white-out/zombie-nation/paternoville/best-student-section-in-the-country insanity. Which I am planning to be in attendance for. This will be a hard fought game. Both teams will have an offensive advantage running the ball so this will be a low-scoring, close game. In the end, PSU will have one more big play on offense which will make the difference.

Final Score:
PSU: 20
TOSU: 14

GO STATE! GET FIRED UP!

Breaking Down: The Indiana Hoosiers

In week 8 Penn State girds its loins and rolls over to Indiana to face the Hoosiers on their turf (The Rock). The Hoosiers enter the 2007 season with heavy hearts after the death of Terry Hoeppner. Bill Lynch will have to grab the reins and continue the momentum coach Hep had built at Indiana. While Indiana has suffered a devastating loss there is reason to be excited in the "Crossroads of America". Indiana returns 9 starters on offense and 7 on defense. If they can rally around/move past/get over/deal with/be inspired by their former coach the Hoosiers have a chance of ending the longest bowl drought in the Big Ten (1993). Below you will find my terrifyingly accurate insight into the 2007 Hoosiers. For everything Hoosiery check out The Hoosier Report.


In Hep We Trust!

Hoosier Passing:
Kellen Lewis returns under center and this time he has a year of experience to his credit. Last year, Lewis passed for 2221 yds, 14 TDs and 7 INTs. However, 11 of those 15 TDs came in three games. Lets just say consistency is a bit of a problem for Mr. Lewis. However, with another year of experience, consistency is something on which he can improve. Another feather in the Hoosier's cap is James Hardy; The Hoosier's leading receiver in receptions, yards, and TDs. In short, if drop him from the team Lewis would have to throw passes to himself. The Hoosier passing game is strong at the top but lacks depth and could have problems getting started against a talented secondary.

Hoosier Running:
Kellen Lewis returns under center and this time he has a year of experience to his credit. Last yaer, Lewis rushed for 441 yards on 124 TDs and 5 Tds. Yes this is the same Kellen Lewis you just read about. Yes it makes him a threat in the running game, however, if your QB is your leading rusher you are playing with fire. Especially if your second leading rushing is listed at WR. Wow. I don't know what those crazy Hoosiers are doing but bless their hearts they seem to be enjoying it.

Hoosier Defense:
Remember how Indiana is returning 7 starters on defense? Well, those 7 starters helped give up an average of nearly 33 pts/game. Yikes. If you defense gives up more than 4 TDs on average you have more issues than Lindsay Lohan. (BURN!) Careful fellas, she might look good but there is a seething cauldron of instability just below the surface! Similarly, Indiana has their fair share of issues as they are more combustible than some sort of pile of kindling.

Prediction:
This is a tough game for the Lions as it comes right after the Wisconsin game, is on the road, and Ohio State looms on the horizon the next week. If PSU looks past Indiana there could be serious trouble. However, if you look at Indiana on offense, if you have a defense that can contain the talented Mr. Lewis and one shut-down corner then you two can turn Indiana's offense into a whimpering kitten. Fortunately for PSU, Justin King hasn't been tossed into the Sarlaac pit and will, in my opinion, crush Jimmy Hardy's hopes and dreams. In short, Indiana simply won't have the firepower to put up serious points against a very talented Penn State defense. Penn State will finish the game +2 on turnovers and the game will never be in doubt.
I'll get you next time J-King!


Final Score:
PSU: 52
IU: 17

GO STATE! GET FIRED UP FOR THE FALL!

Breaking Down: The Wisconsin Badgers

Penn State stays at home for week seven of 2007 to welcome the Badgers to town. It is more than a little likely that the Badgers will roll into Happy Valley sporting a 7-0 record (they will have faced Washington St., UNLV, the Citadel, Iowa, MSU, and Illinois). Yeah, there is a good chance they will be 7-0. That is if Tyler Donovan can step up and get the job done for the Badgers. Penn State will be in the heart of the Big Ten schedule but there is no rest for the weary as yet another powerhouse, hyped, national contender rolls into State College. Bielema and Wisconsin are on my shitlist for the abuse of the clock in last years game. It was a close game and the wasting of the clock was not in the spirit of the game. Yes it was cheating. Yes, it still pisses me off. That being said; I'll take a wildly impartial look at the 2007 Badgers below. Peep some badger blogs: Bucky's Faithful, and Badger Sports Fan.

I'm cookin up some sweet illegal plays for 07!

Passing:
Lets start with the bad news, for the first time since 1978 John Stocco won't be starting under center for the Badgers. However, before you think that there is no replacing Stocco's 2185 passing yards on 59% passing and 17 TDs play this in your mind: "NOT SO FAST, MY FRIEND!". Donovan is no useless turd-burglar. Last year, Donovan passed for 564 yds, 4 TDs, on 63% passing. His only real weakness was his decision making as he also heaved up 2 INTS. Also, Hubbard and Beckum return to man the WR corps. The Duo combined for 1530 receiving yards and 10 TDS. In short, don't expect to be able to crowd the line against the Badgers.


Rushing:
If the Badgers rushing game were embodied as a dog it would look like this. Two of Wisconsin's best RBs were merely freshman in 2006. (lyrical puns are awesome!) Hill and Smith will both be back and looking to improve on their combined 1914 rushing yards and 20 TDs! The offensive line also returns a talented and experienced bunch. I wouldn't expect these totals to decrease much in 2007. Apparently it will be pick you poison against the Badgers; do you want to challenge the beastly running game or take your chances with Donovan in the passing game.




Defense:
Wisconsin only gave up 12 points a game last year. PSU was only able to put up 3 points against the badgers. Yes, it was tough to watch. Yes, it still hurts me inside. This years Badgers squad look good on the Defensive line and Linebacker but graduation hit them hard in the Defensive backfield. It seems that if one is to be successful against Wisconsin it mus be through the air initially to open up the running game.

Prediction:
This is another very lose-able game for Penn State. This years Wisconsin team is deeper in a lot of ways than last year's team. If PSU is to have success they will have to pass the ball effectively and limit a very potent Wisconsin running game. Wisconsin's key to victory will be controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball (last year Wisconsin had the ball for over 37 mins against PSU last year. Not good). If the Badgers can run the ball, prevent PSU from hurrying Donovan, and open running lanes for the rushing game the badgers will be tough to beat.

Prediction:

PSU: 15
Wisc: 13

GO STATE GET FIRED UP FOR WISCONSIN!

Breaking Down: The Iowa Hawkeyes

In week six Penn State returns home after back-to-back weeks on the road (Michigan and Illinois), at least the have two weeks without having to clean the stadium on Sunday! The Hawkeyes come off a disappointing 7-6 2006 campaign. This is not to say Iowa is without talent, the last time we saw the Hawkeyes play Iowa lost to Texas 26-24 in the Alamo bowl. Certainly, it was a road game for Iowa and they still gave a good Texas team a run for their money. Iowa has many a good blogger including Kinnick North and Hawkeye State, check them out and expand your personal blogosphere. And now, on to the Breakdown.


Rushing:
Iowa returns Young and Sims in the backfield and will be done by committee yet again. THis is not to say that the committee in question was ineffective as they racked up 1443 yds between the two of them and averaging 4.7 YPC. Did I not mention that they combined for 13 touchdowns? Hmmm...Weird. Even if you aren't a fan of RB by commitee you have to admit that both backs are talented and this makes the Iowa backfield deep, if nothing else. What is odd is that only Sims breached the century mark, against Purdue, all year. Truly a committee of equals. Good luck with all that. All Joking aside, stopping the run is a critical component to beating the Hawkeyes. The fact that an inexperienced QB will be manning the helm will make the Lion's defensive-task all the easier.

Passing:
The passing game, however, was clearly manned by Drew Tate in 2006 as he threw for 2623 yds while completing 58% of his passes. Sadly, graduation is a real bastard in college football and Sophomore Jake Christensen will be calling the signals this fall. Christensen did complete nearly 66% of his passes for 285 yards in 2006. The future is bright, right? Well, 256 of those yards (and both TDs) came against Northern Illinois. Not really a performance to hang your hat on. My suspicion is that Iowa will try to establish the run early and get the play-action-passing-game going. The O-line also gave up 20 sacks last season (yikes) and will have to perform better in 2007 if the Hawkeyes are to have a good year. The WRs are young and talented but will have to continue to play very well and adjust to having Christensen at the reins. Again, my prescription for victory is a heavy dose of pressure. Go for the QB boys, and if you happen to tackle the RB along the way, good for you!

Defense:
The Hawkeye defense gave up nearly 21 pts/game in 2007, however, they only graduated three players on defense. With 8 starters returning the Hawkeyes are sure to improve on the defensive side of the ball. If the Hawkeyes can improve on Defense and control the ball the Hawkeyes could be very dangerous this year. However, if the Offense can't keep the defense off the field the Hawkeyes will struggle.

Prediction:
The Hawkeyes will roll into Happy Valley with a 4-1 record with their only loss being to Wisconsin on the road. The Lions will have to try to focus on Iowa and not look ahead to next Wisconsin the following week. The game will come down to Iowa turnovers, as the PSU secondary will feast on a young Iowa passing attack by picking off Christensen three times and converting these turnovers into points. The Iowa running game will do it's damage but the offense will struggle in the red zone.

Final Score!
PSU: 24
Iowa: 16

GO STATE! GET FIRED UP FOR THE FALL!

Breaking Down: The Fighting Illinis

In week 5 Penn State will remain on the road, after a big game in Michigan, and travel to Champagne Illinois to take on the Illinis. Illinois is definitely a team on the rise in the Big Ten. Ron Zook is an animal on the recruiting trail...And on the water! Some found that surprising, however, what I think will be surprising is if Ron can coach these guys into champs. There is, however, no disputing that Illinois is young and talented...and probably still a year away from being a force in the Big Ten. That is not to say that Illinois will not be dangerous this year. They will almost certainly improve from their stellar 2-10 2006 campaign.






Man, this water is really pounding my junk!
Passing:
Juice Williams returns to lead the Illinis this year and the team will only go as far as Juice can push them. Juice has the talent to take Illinois to the promise-land if he can improve his decision-making in the passing game. Juice only completed 39.5% of his passes as a Freshman including 9 Ints. These numbers are more befitting a an armless turd who somehow got suited up to play football than a man!
The passing numbers should improve considering the teams top three wide receivers all return for another year. If Juice limits mistakes and makes good decisions on when to run and when to pass the illinis will be a very dangerous team.

Rushing:
Dry your tears you sorry, illinois-sots, your leading rusher is graduating. Take a moment to get over it. NO! YOU DON'T CARE AT ALL! Pierre Thomas Jr. was your leading rusher last year and now he is gone and you still don't care! WHY? because Pierre only rushed for only 179 yards more than Juice did! And you'll just plug Mendenhall in at RB and there won't be an appreciable drop off in production. Illinois will still do it by committee and will still rush for about 2000 yards as a team. The numbers might be down a little bit if Juice learns to throw the ball with any accuracy. However, that shouldn't be a comfort as the ball will still be moving down the field. Yet again, the prescription for beating the Illinis is to beat Juice Williams.

Defense:
Illinois gave up 26.75 pts/game last year which goes a long way to explain their 2-10 record. However, it doesn't seem as though they are bereft of talent but rather that they are young and inexperienced. How else can you explain giving up 31 points to the lowly Orangemen but then playing Tosu close and only surrendering 17? How do you justify that in your brain? It makes about as much sense as being in love with your matronly, robot-helper, Rosey!
Ron Zook has got to be thinking to himself:

"I wonder if Juice would be interested in playing safety also......hmmm.....I wonder if he wants to go water-skiing with me?"

Predictions:
This is going to be a better game than a lot of folks think. I believe Penn State only won 26-12 last year because of a couple of late defensive TDs. The end result this year, however, will be much the same as it was last year. Juice will get his rushing yards and Illinois will move the chains against a Lion's squad who will be on the road after a big game in Michigan. While I believe PSU will still prevail this has the possibility of being a let-down game for the Lions.

PSU: 31
Illini: 23

GO STATE!

Breaking Down Michigan

Penn State travels to face Michigan in the Big House on September 22nd, this will be Penn State's toughest challenge of 2007. Michigan, despite losing tons of talent to the NFL, will return enough firepower to make another run at a national title. This game will have big time national title implications and, i'll go ahead and make the prediction now, if Penn State beats Michigan on the road then PSU will play for the national title.
We're also going to try something new with the weekly breakdowns; while I break down Michigan Dave over at Maize N Brew will be breaking down the Lions. If you've never been to Maize N Brew then you are missing out. My breakdown of the Wolverines can be found below.

Rushing:
Michigan really does not have much of a rushing attack....aside from Mike Hart who is coming off a season where he rushed for 1562 yards and 14 TDs. He did all this while averaging 5 yds/carry. That included a 112 yards and 1 td on the road in Happy Valley. He is a beast. If Penn State can hold Hart under 100 yards that will go a long way to helping Penn State beat the Wolverines. The problem with that is that you can't just stack the box or Chad Henne, who has been playing at Michigan since 1874, will torch you. Michigan is also rather deep at RB with Minor and Jackson. Both of these guys are talented and averaged more yds/carry than Hart did. In sum, Michigan is deep and dangerous at tailback. Hart will get his touches and yards, however, the path to victory lies in limiting big plays, ball control and keeping Michigan's offense off the field.

Passing:
If you are looking for the chink in Michigan's offensive armor in the passing game then you have the intelligence of a squirrel. Chad Henne returns, yes again, to lead Michigan's passing attack. While he didn't invent the forward pass he has been playing football at Michigan since its inception making hime a deadly opponnent. Chad passed for over 2500 yards 22 TDs and threw only 8 Ints. Mario Manningham returns to complete the three headed monster which is the Michigan Offense.



If I was allowed to draw up Penn State's defensive scheme to try to stop Michigan I would do the following. Bring the heat. All day. You're gonna have to leave the corners to fend for themselves, fortunately, Justin King is as good as they come. Yes, you might get beat by big play or two, however, you can't give Henne time to throw or he'll pick you apart from the comfort of his big comfy pocket.

Defense:
Michigan only gave up 16 pts/game last year, however, near the end of the year they were exposed by USC and Tosu. David Booty lit them up in the Rose Bowl passing for nearly 400 yards and 4 TDs and Tosu managed to rack up 267 yards through the air. Perhaps Michigan is vulnerable through the air. This could play into Penn State's hands as, if the Lions are to go anywhere, they will need to air it out.

Prediction:
This is going to be a high-scoring, exciting game. Michigan has too many weapons on offense to keep them off the scoreboard. Mike Hart will rush for 100 yards give or take, Chad Henne will pass for 275 yards but 2 uncharacteristic turnovers will be his undoing. Anthony Morelli will have the performance Penn State fans have been waiting 4 years to see. If you want me to get even more specific, Penn State will win the game on a game winning field goal. Sharpen you knives haters of Loyd Carr, Penn State will beat Michigan for the first time in....well, too long.

PSU: 30
Mich: 28

If Penn State is going to lose a game this year, this is where it will happen. Michigan is a great football team and it could be them playing for the little crystal trophy..... and photos of Brittany Spears fellating Loyd Carr will start circulating shortly.

GO STATE! GET FIRED UP FOR THE FALL!

Breaking Down: The Buffalo Bulls

The Buffalo Bulls are clearly Penn State's last "tune-up" game of the fall before embarking on their Big Ten schedule (@ Michigan, @ Illinois, Iowa, and Wisconsin in successive weeks). So save the White-0ut for Wisconsin you little scamps! The Bills went 2-10 last year in the MAC with wins against Temple and Kent State (the cream of the MAC!) This, much like the FIU game, will be a game where you want to watch for improvement from key parts of the team (O-line & D-line) and for no injuries to occur. If the team comes out of this game healthy and having gained experience at key positions then victory is ours! While I don't claim to be a master of Bulls football, I will attempt to give me meager analysis below.




Drugs are for Turds!

Passing:
Drew Willy will return to take snaps for the Bulls. Willy is a returning junior who completed nearly 60% of his passes for a little under 1400 yds. in 2006. However, when you check out his games against quality opponnents (BC and Auburn) he only threw for 191 yds. total. The Bulls do, however, return two of their top receivers for 2007 in Breaux and Roosevelt. All in all, the Bulls will be an improved passing team in 2007. This improvement, however, will not make them good enough to challenge a defense like PSU's.

Rushing:
James Starks will be the Bull to watch when Buffalo has the ball. As a Freshman Starks rushed for 704 yds while averaging 4 yds/carry. Again, if you look as his stats against quality opponents (BC and Auburn) he rushed for only 67 yds on 29 carries (2.3 yds/carry). This year I think Starks could rush for 1000 yards, however, only 64 of those will come against the Nittany Lions. (write that prediction down mother-fuckers!)
(Electric Boogaloo!) Defense:
The Bulls gave up 36 points a game last year. In the MAC. Yikes. I see no reason to believe that this trend will reverse itself in 2007. Penn State will win by 40+ points and no starter will play beyond the third quarter.

Prediction
PSU: 69
Bulls: 12

GO STATE! GET FIRED UP FOR THE FALL!

Breaking Down The Golden Pathers of FIU

Penn State will hold it's opener against the mighty Golden Panthers of FIU in a scant 90 days. Because we are only 13 weeks or so away from the start of the season I need to start breaking down PSU's opponents. The only place to begin is at the beginning.

The Golden Panthers had a dismal 2006 season going 0-12 in the ever-competitive Sun-Belt Conference. There is little reason to think that the Panthers will be able to improve on that mark this year. I'll try to break down the turd which is the 2007 Golden Panthers below (binge on FIU stats yourself here):

Passing:
Josh Padrick graduated after an awful senior season in which he completed 213 of 388 passes but had 14 INTs compared to only 5 TD tosses. True Sophomore Paul McCall will take the reigns of this high-powered juggernaut in 2007. McCall saw limited action last year only throwing 18 passes which included 1 INT and ZERO TDs. To make matters worse, the two best receivers on last years team also graduated (Williams and Smith) leaving an inexperienced QB with even less experienced receivers. There is no way the FIU passing game will be anything but dreadful in 2007.

Rushing:
If FIU is to have any respectability at all it will have to be on the shoulders of their experienced RB tandem in Ned and Reams who combined for 770 yards last year. Ned is the more explosive of the two averaging 5.1 yds/carry but it is clear that Reams will still play a large role in 2007 as he actually carried the ball 10 more times in 2006 than Ned did. The FIU rushing attack will be serviceable but they won't rush for more than 80 yards against a stingy Penn State Defense.

Defense:
The Defense was, well, terrible. They gave up 313 points in 12 games in the SUN-BELT! This averages out to 26 pts/game, porous at best. Against PSU's experienced passing game and the explosiveness of Austin Scott they will be generally outclassed.

Prediction:
0-0 will be the only time FIU is in sniffing distance of the Nittany Lions. PSU's offense will show it's quick strike ability, this will be the only thing preventing the FIU defense from being on the field the entire day. Penn State will cause 4 FIU turnovers and probably score a TD off of one. The offense will show no mercy as it needs the experience to prepare for ND the next week.

Final Score:
PSU: 48
FIU: 6

Don't forget this either. Very Classy!



GO STATE! GET FIRED UP FOR THE FALL!